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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 1, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL171611002425
TOR11411611204346

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:05MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:27TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Niklas Hagman · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:38MTLTravis MoenAssists: Glen Metropolit, Georges Laraque · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:29TORMatt StajanPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:09TORMatt StajanPPAssists: Jason Blake, Viktor Stalberg · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
  6. P3 15:50MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Josh Gorges, Paul Mara · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 1:51TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:51MTLGeorges Laraque: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:55TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P1 10:55MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 11:01TORMike Komisarek: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P2 8:42MTLMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 10:09MTLPaul Mara: Holding2 min
  8. P2 14:56TORGarnet Exelby: Interference2 min
  9. P2 16:47MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 16:47TORMike Komisarek: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 5:56MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 5:56TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 8:56MTLTravis Moen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  14. P3 8:56MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 8:56TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 15:14TORMike Komisarek: Elbowing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLTOR
25Shots on goal46
3.2Expected goals3.7
62Shot attempts92
31Faceoffs won31
4Power plays3
25Penalty minutes27
37Hits22
25Blocked shots15
15Giveaways22
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.7 xGMTL 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 80/100 · #210 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.15 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).