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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 1, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 5

Away

San Jose Sharks

2

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.

COL winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS11219019240
COL2731201520

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:03COLDarcy TuckerAssists: John-Michael Liles, TJ Galiardi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:47SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:05COLWojtek WolskiAssists: Milan Hejduk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 5:12COLCody McLeodGWGAssists: Chris Stewart, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:26SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
  6. P2 9:48COLWojtek WolskiAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
  7. P2 12:17COLJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Brett Clark, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 11:53COLDarcy Tucker: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:20SJSJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:56SJSRob Blake: High sticking double minor4 min
  4. P2 7:49COLAdam Foote: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 10:25SJSJody Shelley: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 10:25SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 10:25COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 16:24COLScott Hannan: Holding2 min
  9. P3 2:57COLMarek Svatos: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 11:32COLScott Hannan: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 11:32COLWojtek Wolski: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Pavelski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCOL
40Shots on goal20
3.8Expected goals2.6
75Shot attempts38
32Faceoffs won13
6Power plays4
13Penalty minutes17
19Hits20
8Blocked shots16
9Giveaways7
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.6 xGSJS 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #570 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 68% of the time.

COL winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).