Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 1, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 5

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.

CGY winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN07214121342
CGY371917523

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:50CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Rene Bourque, Robyn Regehr · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:56CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Nigel Dawes, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P1 11:52CGYAdam PardyAssists: Craig Conroy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
  4. P2 4:02VANKevin BieksaPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 9:34CGYBrandon PrustGWGAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
  6. P2 18:10VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
  7. P3 0:41VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–4
  8. P3 18:57CGYDion PhaneufENAssists: Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.59 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:25VANShane O'Brien: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:16VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 13:47VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 0:00VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 0:00CGYOlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 3:36CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 10:55CGYRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 17:25CGYRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min · PPG
  9. P3 8:54CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 8:54VANMason Raymond: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 13:39CGYDaymond Langkow: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCGY
42Shots on goal23
2.9Expected goals3.5
69Shot attempts50
30Faceoffs won27
4Power plays3
10Penalty minutes12
19Hits24
13Blocked shots15
11Giveaways9
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.5 xGVAN 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #264 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.

CGY winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).