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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 2, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 0

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI0152705227
CAR0808012028

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:25PHIJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:47PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, James van Riemsdyk · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 4:52PHIDarroll Powe: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 8:58CARNiclas Wallin: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 12:49PHIDaniel Carcillo: Boarding2 min
  4. P1 12:49PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 12:49CARTim Gleason: Instigator2 min
  6. P1 12:49CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 12:49CARTim Gleason: Misconduct10 min
  8. P1 15:05CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
  9. P1 17:56PHIChris Pronger: Holding2 min
  10. P1 19:30CARSergei Samsonov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  11. P2 5:12PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
  12. P2 8:05PHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking2 min
  13. P2 10:57PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
  14. P2 17:48CARRod Brind'Amour: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 4:14PHIDanny Syvret: Slashing2 min
  16. P3 8:15PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
  17. P3 8:15CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
  18. P3 14:04PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  19. P3 19:24PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHICAR
27Shots on goal28
2.9Expected goals3.2
49Shot attempts65
29Faceoffs won36
5Power plays8
25Penalty minutes29
17Hits24
17Blocked shots8
1Giveaways5
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.2 xGPHI 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1099 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.79 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).