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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 2, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

New York Rangers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3

Away

New York Rangers

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.

PIT winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR1701218227
PIT19212010331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:48PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:01NYRChris DruryAssists: Chris Higgins · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:25PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Bill Guerin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:33PITTyler KennedyGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:56NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 6:28NYRChris Drury: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:55PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:55NYRDonald Brashear: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 17:02PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 4:57PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 16:47PITBrooks Orpik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P3 6:40NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 9:27PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRPIT
27Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals2.8
62Shot attempts60
28Faceoffs won28
4Power plays2
9Penalty minutes13
30Hits40
18Blocked shots22
5Giveaways6
1Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.8 xGNYR 2.3 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #761 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.

PIT winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).