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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 2, 2009·Hartwall Areena, HelsinkiNeutral site

Florida Panthers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 91% of the time.

CHI winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA081827012424
CHI010116224051355

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:19CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:01FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:52CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:29FLAVille KoistinenAssists: Cory Stillman, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:36CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:39FLADavid BoothUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
  2. 2. FLA Steve Reinprecht scored
  3. 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  4. 4. FLA Ville Koistinen scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 15:08CHITroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 1:53FLABryan McCabe: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 3:10CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 19:19FLARadek Dvorak: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 6:00FLABryan Allen: Holding2 min
  6. P3 6:50CHIAndrew Ladd: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Campbell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACHI
24Shots on goal55
1.9Expected goals5.3
53Shot attempts90
29Faceoffs won39
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
25Hits25
20Blocked shots17
5Giveaways5
8Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 5.3 xGFLA 1.9 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #76 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.60 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 91% of the time.

CHI winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).