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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Vancouver Canucks 0, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Vancouver Canucks

0

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.

COL winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN012012011035
COL11017110327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:52COLWojtek WolskiGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:16COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Kyle Quincey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P3 5:23COLDarcy TuckerPPAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 6:07COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 16:09COLDarcy Tucker: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 16:09VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 5:06COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
  5. P2 9:44VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 12:22VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
  7. P2 15:10VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 16:19COLAdam Foote: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 19:55VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min
  10. P3 3:59VANRyan Kesler: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:07VANShane O'Brien: Elbowing2 min
  12. P3 19:47COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 19:47VANWillie Mitchell: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 0:00COLDarcy Tucker: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 0:00VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCOL
35Shots on goal27
3.3Expected goals3.0
63Shot attempts49
28Faceoffs won23
3Power plays6
24Penalty minutes18
17Hits19
12Blocked shots16
7Giveaways9
11Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.0 xGVAN 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1151 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.64 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.

COL winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).