Sat, Oct 3, 2009·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 16 | 114 | 227 |
| BOS | 321 | 315 | 16 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06BOSMarc SavardPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Derek Morris · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 12:38BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 13:04BOSBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Steve Begin, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 10:37BOSMarco SturmAssists: Marc Savard · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 12:44BOSDennis WidemanPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
- P2 15:21CARScott WalkerAssists: Aaron Ward, Sergei Samsonov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 18:23BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Steve Begin · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 2:41CAREric StaalPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 8:29BOSMatt HunwickPPAssists: Marco Sturm, Marc Savard · Snap, 0.16 xG2–7
Penalties (30)
- P1 3:35CARJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:43CARStephane Yelle: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:00BOSTim Thomas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:15CARJay Harrison: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 13:22BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:28CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:43BOSMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:16BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:46CARNiclas Wallin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:20BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:20CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:23BOSMarc Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23CARAndrew Alberts: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:23CARTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23BOSDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23BOSZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:23CARTom Kostopoulos: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:23CARTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:21CARMatt Cullen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:21BOSAndrew Ference: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:21CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:07BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:37BOSDerek Morris: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:47CARSergei Samsonov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:34BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:34CARAndrew Alberts: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:11CARJay Harrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:28BOSMark Stuart: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).