Sat, Oct 3, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 2, Buffalo Sabres 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 19 | 01 | 12 | 217 |
| BUF | 112 | 011 | 011 | 01 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Craig Rivet, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 12:33MTLTravis MoenSHAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- OT 2:42MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Scott Gomez · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 2:34MTLGlen Metropolit: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:23BUFCraig Rivet: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:19MTLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50BUFTim Kennedy: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50BUFChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50MTLHal Gill: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50MTLHal Gill: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:01BUFDerek Roy: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:14MTLGregory Stewart: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:26BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:26MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:26BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:53MTLBrian Gionta: Interference2 min
- P2 14:21MTLMaxim Lapierre: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:35BUFHenrik Tallinder: Interference2 min
- P3 0:55BUFAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:11BUFSteve Montador: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:17MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).