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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Philadelphia Flyers 5, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.

NJD winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI11027210527
NJD0601327226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:57PHIJeff CarterAssists: Scott Hartnell, Ryan Parent · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:20PHIIan LaperriereAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 15:23PHIMike RichardsGWGAssists: Matt Carle, Chris Pronger · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P3 7:34PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.02 xG4–0
  5. P3 9:44NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Dainius Zubrus · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
  6. P3 11:13PHIMatt CarleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
  7. P3 13:40NJDJamie LangenbrunnerSHAssists: Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 7:05NJDJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:49PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 9:49PHIJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 18:44PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min
  5. P2 0:11PHIRay Emery: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
  6. P3 8:48PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  7. P3 12:05NJDAndrew Peters: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 12:05NJDAndrew Peters: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINJD
27Shots on goal26
1.3Expected goals2.0
41Shot attempts38
27Faceoffs won31
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
5Hits8
6Blocked shots9
1Giveaways4
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.0 xGPHI 1.3 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #928 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.

NJD winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).