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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

Ottawa Senators 2, New York Rangers 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 83% of the time.

NYR winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0912015234
NYR01331328534

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:20NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Marc Staal, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:00NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:36OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:09NYRMichael Del ZottoGWGAssists: Chris Drury, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P3 12:04NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Enver Lisin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
  6. P3 18:52NYRBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–5
  7. P3 19:54OTTPeter ReginAssists: Mike Fisher, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:44OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 13:00OTTPeter Regin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P1 16:09OTTChris Neil: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 4:52NYRArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
  5. P2 10:54OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min
  6. P3 0:24NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 5:41OTTJarkko Ruutu: Interference2 min
  8. P3 7:17NYRChris Higgins: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 17:36NYRDonald Brashear: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 17:36OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 17:36NYRBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 0:00NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 0:00OTTMike Fisher: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNYR
34Shots on goal34
3.5Expected goals6.2
63Shot attempts64
27Faceoffs won29
4Power plays5
20Penalty minutes18
41Hits28
12Blocked shots19
5Giveaways5
2Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 6.2 xGOTT 3.5 xG
0246P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYROTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #708 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 83% of the time.

NYR winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).