Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Washington Capitals 6

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.

WSH winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR01011536431
WSH3831207627

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:17WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:12WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Chris Clark, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:53WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Milan Jurcina, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
  4. P2 4:23TORLee StempniakAssists: Ian White, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 5:27WSHAlexander SeminAssists: John Erskine · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
  6. P2 10:42WSHBrendan MorrisonGWGAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Laich · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
  7. P2 16:02WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–6
  8. P3 2:04TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Jeff Finger · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
  9. P3 5:18TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Luke Schenn, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–6
  10. P3 17:57TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 7:27TORMike Komisarek: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:57WSHBoyd Gordon: Holding2 min
  3. P2 11:23TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 17:27WSHMike Green: Interference2 min
  5. P3 10:12WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 15:01TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORWSH
31Shots on goal27
2.7Expected goals4.5
56Shot attempts56
25Faceoffs won31
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
22Hits24
15Blocked shots15
20Giveaways13
7Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.5 xGTOR 2.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #132 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.

WSH winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).