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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Hartwall Areena, HelsinkiNeutral site

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Florida Panthers 0

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.

FLA winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI1721719433
FLA0308012023

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:05CHIBrian CampbellPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:12CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–0
  3. P2 19:03CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brent Seabrook · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P3 4:01CHIDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:28FLAVille Koistinen: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P2 2:47CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Holding2 min
  3. P2 9:11FLACory Stillman: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 10:16FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:51FLAMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 3:05FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 10:10CHITroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 13:19CHIJohn Madden: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIFLA
33Shots on goal23
3.1Expected goals2.9
59Shot attempts48
25Faceoffs won19
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
21Hits30
10Blocked shots15
3Giveaways5
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.9 xGCHI 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1156 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 53% of the time.

FLA winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).