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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Minnesota Wild 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.

CBJ winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN09012112133
CBJ01111919239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:30CBJR.J. UmbergerSHAssists: Andrew Murray, Marc Methot · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P3 4:43MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P3 10:10CBJRostislav KleslaGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Fedor Tyutin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 15:25MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 3:42CBJDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
  3. P2 9:23CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Interference2 min
  4. P2 15:02MINBrent Burns: High sticking double minor4 min
  5. P3 4:04CBJNikita Filatov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 18:17CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCBJ
33Shots on goal39
2.7Expected goals2.7
46Shot attempts57
27Faceoffs won32
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
25Hits24
10Blocked shots8
3Giveaways6
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGMIN 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #804 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.

CBJ winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).