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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Nashville Predators 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.

DAL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NSH191905032326
DAL01418113051240

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:48NSHJason ArnottPPAssists: J-P Dumont · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:47NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Jason Arnott, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
  3. P2 19:50DALJames NealAssists: Fabian Brunnstrom, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:05DALJames NealPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
  2. 2. DAL James Neal stopped
  3. 3. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
  4. 4. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
  5. 5. NSH David Legwand scored
  6. 6. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  7. 7. NSH Martin Erat stopped
  8. 8. DAL Mike Modano stopped
  9. 9. NSH Mike Santorelli scored
  10. 10. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 0:41DALMike Modano: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 13:11NSHRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 14:11NSHJ-P Dumont: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P1 17:56DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:17DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 3:45NSHBen Guite: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 8:58NSHRyan Jones: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 10:52NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 19:25DALBrad Richards: Slashing2 min
  10. OT 1:14NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Modano won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHDAL
26Shots on goal40
2.3Expected goals4.5
45Shot attempts79
37Faceoffs won30
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
35Hits24
15Blocked shots13
9Giveaways9
7Takeaways20

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 4.5 xGNSH 2.3 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #217 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.98 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.

DAL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).