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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 5, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

New York Rangers 3, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

New York Rangers

3

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR2711207326
NJD2901206227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:10NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: Jay Pandolfo, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:31NYRMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Ales Kotalik · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:52NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: David Clarkson, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:23NYRAles KotalikAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:50NYRMatt GilroyGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 1:54NYRMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
  2. P1 5:51NJDIlkka Pikkarainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:23NJDBrian Rolston: Holding2 min
  4. P1 9:51NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P1 13:52NJDRod Pelley: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 16:18NYRChris Drury: Kneeing2 min
  7. P1 16:18NJDJohnny Oduya: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 16:18NJDJohnny Oduya: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 19:19NYRVinny Prospal: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 7:39NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min
  11. P2 11:32NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  12. P2 11:55NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 14:43NYRAles Kotalik: Hooking2 min
  14. P2 14:43NJDBrian Rolston: Diving2 min
  15. P2 19:03NYRRyan Callahan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  16. P3 0:37NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min
  17. P3 11:13NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 11:13NYRAaron Voros: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRNJD
26Shots on goal27
1.5Expected goals1.9
44Shot attempts50
28Faceoffs won28
6Power plays6
18Penalty minutes18
21Hits16
9Blocked shots7
3Giveaways4
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.9 xGNYR 1.5 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #665 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.45 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).