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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 5, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

5

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.

VAN winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ193718524
VAN113114116343

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:29VANHenrik SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:18CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Rick Nash, Mathieu Roy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:07CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Rick Nash, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:29CBJRostislav KleslaAssists: Kristian Huselius, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P2 5:51CBJNikita FilatovGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
  6. P2 8:27VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Willie Mitchell, Steve Bernier · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
  7. P3 7:37VANWillie MitchellAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 16:03CBJFedor TyutinPPAssists: Kris Russell · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:48VANDarcy Hordichuk: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 8:45VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:37CBJMarc Methot: Elbowing2 min
  4. P1 17:18CBJRostislav Klesla: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 14:30CBJMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 14:30VANShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 4:01CBJJan Hejda: Holding2 min
  8. P3 14:32VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wellwood won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJVAN
24Shots on goal43
1.7Expected goals3.5
41Shot attempts84
27Faceoffs won38
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
11Hits27
23Blocked shots8
3Giveaways3
4Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.5 xGCBJ 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #245 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 79% of the time.

VAN winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).