Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 6, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0821307228
TOR0805113126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:45OTTShean DonovanAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.41 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:22OTTDaniel AlfredssonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P3 5:36TORMatt StajanPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:13TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 3:13OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 6:56OTTChris Kelly: Interference2 min
  4. P2 0:35OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 7:22TORLuke Schenn: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 4:43OTTAlexandre Picard: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 19:54TORJohn Mitchell: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 19:54OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTTOR
28Shots on goal26
2.5Expected goals1.6
49Shot attempts54
27Faceoffs won23
1Power plays3
10Penalty minutes6
35Hits27
13Blocked shots11
8Giveaways8
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 1.6 xGOTT 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TOROTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #992 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).