Tue, Oct 6, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 19 | 06 | 04 | 0 | 130 |
| CAR | 114 | 07 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Cam Ward · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:00TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.69 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Sergei Samsonov scored
- 2. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 5. CAR Tuomo Ruutu scored
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:04TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:04CARTim Conboy: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:25CARJoe Corvo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:56TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 4:02CARSergei Samsonov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:43CARMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:01TBLStephane Veilleux: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:58TBLMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:57CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min
- P2 11:57CARJoni Pitkanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:35CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:57TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39CARChad LaRose: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 4:50TBLDavid Hale: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).