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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 6, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Anaheim Ducks 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Minnesota Wild

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.

MIN winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
ANA073100200319
MIN0100731312432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:57ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Ryan Whitney, James Wisniewski · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:06ANAEvgeny ArtyukhinAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:56ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Ryan Whitney · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
  4. P3 6:29MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Andrew Brunette · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
  5. P3 12:10MINPetr SykoraAssists: Martin Havlat, Eric Belanger · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:47MINEric BelangerPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:08MINAndrew BrunettePPGWGAssists: Eric Belanger, Kim Johnsson · Snap, 0.52 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 5:02ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:24MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min
  3. P2 1:16ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 9:17MINAntti Miettinen: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 12:08MINShane Hnidy: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 12:08ANAMike Brown: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 2:36ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P3 2:36MINJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 5:23ANAJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 8:01MINBenoit Pouliot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  11. P3 8:01ANANick Boynton: Interference2 min
  12. P3 16:45ANARyan Whitney: Holding2 min · PPG
  13. OT 1:44ANAJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sheppard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAMIN
19Shots on goal32
1.3Expected goals2.8
35Shot attempts65
23Faceoffs won39
2Power plays5
19Penalty minutes13
15Hits16
17Blocked shots8
7Giveaways17
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.8 xGANA 1.3 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #81 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.03 · 7 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.

MIN winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).