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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 6, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Montréal Canadiens 3, Calgary Flames 4

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL2916015330
CGY1721615428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:17CGYEric NystromAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom, Staffan Kronwall · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:47MTLScott GomezAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:19MTLGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Paul Mara · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:03CGYEric NystromAssists: Adam Pardy · Slap, 0.20 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:11CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:49MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Paul Mara, Travis Moen · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 2:16CGYEric NystromGWGAssists: Staffan Kronwall, Adam Pardy · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 8:21MTLGregory Stewart: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 8:21CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 2:35MTLKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 2:35CGYEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 14:50MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLCGY
30Shots on goal28
1.5Expected goals2.2
51Shot attempts56
27Faceoffs won21
0Power plays1
12Penalty minutes10
16Hits14
12Blocked shots17
5Giveaways10
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.2 xGMTL 1.5 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #420 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.76 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).