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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 6, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.

EDM winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL11021319020434
EDM1621017010524

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:39EDMMike ComriePPAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ladislav Smid · Snap, 0.34 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:48DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:57DALJames NealSHAssists: Marty Turco · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:35EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Zack Stortini, Denis Grebeshkov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:57DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Brad Richards, Brenden Morrow · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P2 18:06EDMDustin PennerAssists: Robert Nilsson · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
  7. P3 1:25DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
  8. P3 6:52EDMDenis GrebeshkovAssists: Ales Hemsky, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  2. 2. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  3. 3. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
  4. 4. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 1:53DALJeff Woywitka: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:28EDMSheldon Souray: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:28DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 9:16DALMike Ribeiro: Holding2 min
  5. P1 13:41EDMGilbert Brule: Holding2 min
  6. P1 18:41EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 0:56EDMRyan Stone: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 0:56DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 4:44DALLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P2 10:38EDMShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P2 13:18EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 19:23EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 19:23DALBrian Sutherby: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 0:00EDMSteve Staios: Hooking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 4:46DALKrys Barch: Holding2 min
  16. P3 9:01EDMMike Comrie: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brule won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALEDM
34Shots on goal24
4.8Expected goals1.9
69Shot attempts52
27Faceoffs won26
6Power plays4
20Penalty minutes24
15Hits24
17Blocked shots17
12Giveaways11
12Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 1.9 xGDAL 4.8 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #41 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.74 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 90% of the time.

EDM winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).