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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 6, 2009·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

San Jose Sharks 4, Los Angeles Kings 6

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.

LAK winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS01425210429
LAK11031228630

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:49LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Michal Handzus, Alex Frolov · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:52LAKRyan SmythPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:20LAKJack JohnsonAssists: Michal Handzus, Peter Harrold · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:16LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Davis Drewiske · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
  5. P2 16:00SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Rob Blake · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:43SJSRob BlakePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–4
  7. P3 1:01SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
  8. P3 14:24SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
  9. P3 14:50LAKTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–5
  10. P3 18:41LAKDavis DrewiskeENAssists: Justin Williams, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–6
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 0:00SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min · PPG
  2. P2 10:18LAKRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 10:18SJSDan Boyle: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:24SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 13:24LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min · PPG
  6. P2 13:24SJSBrad Staubitz: Charging2 min
  7. P2 14:51LAKTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 17:52LAKAlex Frolov: High sticking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 17:52LAKAlex Frolov: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 9:32SJSDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 13:15LAKJarret Stoll: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 19:46LAKWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 19:46SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 19:46SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSLAK
29Shots on goal30
2.0Expected goals3.6
48Shot attempts57
35Faceoffs won26
4Power plays4
20Penalty minutes20
27Hits21
13Blocked shots11
12Giveaways10
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.6 xGSJS 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #67 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.66 · 9 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.

LAK winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).