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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 7, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 0

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.

PIT winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX1101817325
PIT0801006024

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:07PHXEd JovanovskiPPGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Adrian Aucoin · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:47PHXPetr PruchaPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Robert Lang · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
  3. P3 19:06PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–0
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 0:40PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
  2. P1 6:33PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:49PITSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 15:57PHXVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:22PHXAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min
  6. P2 6:50PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 10:00PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 14:31PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
  9. P2 14:46PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 15:51PHXAdrian Aucoin: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 15:51PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  12. P2 16:43PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 16:43PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 19:43PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 5:59PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 8:07PITJay McKee: Hooking2 min
  17. P3 8:14PHXAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXPIT
25Shots on goal24
2.4Expected goals1.4
54Shot attempts39
27Faceoffs won26
9Power plays5
14Penalty minutes22
19Hits26
9Blocked shots17
2Giveaways14
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 1.4 xGPHX 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1101 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 73% of the time.

PIT winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).