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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 7, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Montréal Canadiens 1, Vancouver Canucks 7

Away

Montréal Canadiens

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.

VAN winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0411608128
VAN31427214735

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:50VANRyan KeslerAssists: Alexander Edler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:41VANMason RaymondGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:34VANSteve BernierPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
  4. P2 3:08MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Paul Mara, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P2 11:59VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Sami Salo · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
  6. P2 15:36VANHenrik SedinAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–5
  7. P3 11:39VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–6
  8. P3 11:58VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–7
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 18:01MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 1:39VANKevin Bieksa: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P2 6:11VANMason Raymond: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 11:47MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 12:40VANRyan Johnson: Holding2 min
  6. P2 17:58MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 18:24MTLRoman Hamrlik: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 18:24VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 4:10MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 7:16MTLHal Gill: Fighting5 min · PPG
  11. P3 7:16VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 11:22MTLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
  13. P3 14:40VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLVAN
28Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals3.5
43Shot attempts62
26Faceoffs won33
4Power plays5
17Penalty minutes15
15Hits14
17Blocked shots11
2Giveaways1
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.5 xGMTL 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #936 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 68% of the time.

VAN winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).