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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 8, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.

OTT winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYI081111600225
OTT181701211328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:25OTTPeter ReginAssists: Chris Neil, Matt Carkner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:12OTTMatt CarknerAssists: Jonathan Cheechoo, Alexandre Picard · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:56NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Matt Moulson, Freddy Meyer · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:29NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Doug Weight, John Tavares · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. OT 0:32OTTMike FisherGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Anton Volchenkov · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 6:00OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 14:00OTTMilan Michalek: Hooking2 min
  3. P3 0:19OTTJarkko Ruutu: Interference2 min
  4. P3 3:37OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 9:37NYIRob Schremp: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 12:00NYIRob Schremp: Elbowing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIOTT
25Shots on goal28
3.3Expected goals2.1
61Shot attempts52
27Faceoffs won26
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
17Hits26
13Blocked shots21
6Giveaways6
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.1 xGNYI 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #352 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.66 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.

OTT winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).