Thu, Oct 8, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 27 | 19 | 526 |
| PHI | 112 | 211 | 111 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:53PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:21PITJordan StaalAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 2:37PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Jeff Carter, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 5:26PITBill GuerinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 8:08PITAlex GoligoskiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–2
- P2 16:59PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
- P3 8:37PITTyler KennedyGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 19:19PHIJeff CarterAssists: Mike Richards, Matt Carle · Snap, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:14PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 1:19PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:19PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:13PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:50PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P1 16:50PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:50PHIMatt Carle: Holding2 min
- P1 16:50PHIArron Asham: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:50PITRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:17PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:09PHIMatt Carle: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:08PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:39PITJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:01PHIMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:09PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:01PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P3 19:58PHIMike Richards: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:58PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58PITChris Kunitz: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).