Thu, Oct 8, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 19 | 16 | 07 | 2 | 434 |
| TBL | 07 | 125 | 29 | 03 | 0 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Travis Zajac, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 9:49TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 18:09NJDJay PandolfoAssists: David Clarkson, Rob Niedermayer · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 1:52TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:41TBLTodd FedorukAssists: Victor Hedman, Mattias Ohlund · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:59NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 2. NJD Zach Parise scored
- 3. TBL Alex Tanguay stopped
- 4. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:20TBLJames Wright: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:16TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:08NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min
- P2 14:45NJDJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
- P2 18:48NJDBryce Salvador: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:48TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:40NJDIlkka Pikkarainen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:50NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).