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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 8, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY0101929002428
EDM290418071328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:27EDMEthan MoreauAssists: Gilbert Brule, Denis Grebeshkov · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:46EDMLubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Mike Comrie, Patrick O'Sullivan · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 19:31CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Rene Bourque, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:11CGYNigel DawesAssists: Staffan Kronwall, Rene Bourque · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:30EDMAles HemskyAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Denis Grebeshkov · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:58CGYRene BourqueAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  2. 2. CGY Nigel Dawes scored
  3. 3. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan scored
  4. 4. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 14:18EDMEthan Moreau: Interference2 min
  2. P1 19:28CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:18CGYJarome Iginla: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 6:09CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 6:09EDMEthan Moreau: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 8:47EDMZack Stortini: Interference2 min
  7. P2 9:14EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 11:54CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 16:35EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Tripping2 min
  10. OT 0:35CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYEDM
28Shots on goal28
2.2Expected goals3.4
61Shot attempts57
26Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
13Penalty minutes13
21Hits27
19Blocked shots19
14Giveaways18
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.4 xGCGY 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #109 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.29 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).