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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 8, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, San Jose Sharks 6

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.

SJS winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1111917327
SJS0841129628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:08CBJRick NashAssists: Kristian Huselius, Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:35SJSDan BoyleAssists: Joe Thornton, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:40SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:14CBJJason ChimeraAssists: Mathieu Roy, Jan Hejda · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:05SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:48SJSDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 1:34SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
  8. P3 3:45CBJRaffi TorresPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Rick Nash · Backhand, 0.38 xG3–5
  9. P3 7:08SJSDany HeatleyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 0:36CBJRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 1:41SJSDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 4:08CBJRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P1 13:33CBJMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 2:06SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 2:06CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 6:30SJSRyane Clowe: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 8:51SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 8:51CBJMike Blunden: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:16SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 9:16CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 14:10CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 14:10SJSManny Malhotra: Cross checking2 min
  14. P3 3:39SJSRob Blake: Tripping2 min · PPG
  15. P3 9:37CBJRaffi Torres: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJSJS
27Shots on goal28
2.0Expected goals2.6
46Shot attempts55
29Faceoffs won33
3Power plays4
22Penalty minutes20
25Hits31
23Blocked shots9
8Giveaways10
7Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.6 xGCBJ 2.0 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #242 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.

SJS winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).