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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 9, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0511715227
CAR3161938733

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:00CARTom KostopoulosSHUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:20CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:05CARJussi JokinenGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
  4. P2 13:30CARRay WhitneyAssists: Niclas Wallin, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
  5. P2 16:41FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jordan Leopold, Ville Koistinen · Slap, 0.48 xG1–4
  6. P3 1:32CARMatt CullenAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joe Corvo · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
  7. P3 15:14CARRod Brind'AmourAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Scott Walker · Slap, 0.05 xG1–6
  8. P3 15:33CARJay HarrisonAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Rod Brind'Amour · Snap, 0.03 xG1–7
  9. P3 17:48FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Steve Reinprecht · Snap, 0.09 xG2–7
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:18FLAShawn Matthias: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 6:41CARTim Gleason: Interference2 min
  3. P1 12:41FLAVille Koistinen: Interference2 min
  4. P1 13:35FLAKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 17:20CARAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 2:20CARAndrew Alberts: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 3:40CARMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 6:55FLAJordan Leopold: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 6:55CARScott Walker: Diving2 min
  10. P3 3:13CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
  11. P3 15:48CARSergei Samsonov: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACAR
27Shots on goal33
4.1Expected goals3.9
61Shot attempts57
39Faceoffs won30
6Power plays3
8Penalty minutes14
10Hits32
13Blocked shots17
3Giveaways2
9Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.9 xGFLA 4.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #941 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).