Fri, Oct 9, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 115 | 27 | 28 | 530 |
| CGY | 011 | 17 | 15 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02DALMike RibeiroAssists: Stephane Robidas, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 0:55DALBrian SutherbyAssists: Toby Petersen, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 4:17CGYDion PhaneufPPAssists: Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 9:00DALTom WandellGWGAssists: Fabian Brunnstrom, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 5:17CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Mark Giordano, Nigel Dawes · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:25DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 19:13DALBrad RichardsENAssists: Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:03DALMatt Niskanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:16CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:14DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19CGYRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min
- P3 4:00DALSteve Ott: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 15:08DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:43CGYRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 15:43DALStephane Robidas: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Jaffray
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).