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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

New York Islanders 3, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)

Away

New York Islanders

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.

BOS winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYI0163908051338
BOS0707312042430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:04NYIJon SimPPAssists: Rob Schremp, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:43NYIRadek MartinekAssists: Mark Streit, John Tavares · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 15:48NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Freddy Meyer · Slap, 0.12 xG3–0
  4. P3 11:59BOSMarc SavardAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P3 15:35BOSByron BitzAssists: Steve Begin, Matt Hunwick · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:26BOSMatt HunwickAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Blake Wheeler scored
  2. 2. NYI Rob Schremp scored
  3. 3. NYI Richard Park stopped
  4. 4. BOS Marc Savard scored
  5. 5. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
  6. 6. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  7. 7. NYI Richard Park stopped
  8. 8. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
  9. 9. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:12NYIRichard Park: Interference2 min
  2. P1 2:27BOSAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 7:25BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 7:48BOSBlake Wheeler: High sticking double minor4 min
  5. P1 15:57NYIBruno Gervais: Interference2 min
  6. P2 2:45BOSMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 9:07NYISean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 17:05BOSMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 19:54NYIFreddy Meyer: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 1:47BOSMark Recchi: Interference2 min
  11. P3 13:02NYIMatt Moulson: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIBOS
38Shots on goal30
4.2Expected goals2.3
63Shot attempts57
29Faceoffs won34
7Power plays5
10Penalty minutes14
20Hits25
11Blocked shots12
4Giveaways2
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.3 xGNYI 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #125 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.88 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.

BOS winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).