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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Anaheim Ducks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.

PHI winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ANA0701428041333
PHI11411007040235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:29PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Simon Gagne · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:58PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Matt Carle, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P3 13:16ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:44ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Corey Perry, Scott Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
  2. 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
  3. 3. PHI Mike Richards stopped
  4. 4. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
  5. 5. PHI Simon Gagne stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:08PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Interference2 min
  2. P1 7:42ANANick Boynton: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 12:31ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:13PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Interference2 min
  5. P2 6:18ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 6:18PHIRiley Cote: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 9:14ANATeemu Selanne: Holding2 min
  8. P2 11:46PHIDaniel Carcillo: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 12:51ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  10. P2 15:40PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 16:09ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 4:37ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Interference2 min
  13. P3 16:20ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAPHI
33Shots on goal35
2.6Expected goals4.4
61Shot attempts71
30Faceoffs won28
4Power plays7
16Penalty minutes10
16Hits15
19Blocked shots18
8Giveaways11
9Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.4 xGANA 2.6 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #292 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.80 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.

PHI winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).