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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

New Jersey Devils 3, Florida Panthers 2

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.

FLA winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD016213112341
FLA041918221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:14NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: Paul Martin, Brian Rolston · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:58FLARostislav OleszAssists: Radek Dvorak, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:47NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Andy Greene, Brian Rolston · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 14:37FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Tomas Vokoun · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 16:25NJDDavid ClarksonPPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 4:48FLADavid Booth: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 10:11FLASteve Reinprecht: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 1:20FLANathan Horton: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 5:46NJDRod Pelley: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 15:14NJDJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 16:51FLAMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P3 2:29NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
  8. P3 8:30FLAMichael Frolik: Boarding2 min
  9. P3 14:04NJDTravis Zajac: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  10. P3 15:43FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Campbell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDFLA
41Shots on goal21
2.6Expected goals1.2
65Shot attempts44
25Faceoffs won28
6Power plays4
8Penalty minutes12
21Hits33
16Blocked shots16
5Giveaways6
0Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 1.2 xGNJD 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLANJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #285 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.02 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.

FLA winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).