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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR0927010226
TBL017211311539

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 12:42CAREric StaalPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:24TBLPaul RangerAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Stephane Veilleux · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:39TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Mattias Ohlund, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:28CARRod Brind'AmourPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:46TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Paul Ranger · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:00TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Mattias Ohlund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:44TBLRyan MaloneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:14TBLPaul Ranger: Holding2 min
  2. P1 11:30CARAndrew Alberts: Holding2 min
  3. P1 15:45CARRod Brind'Amour: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P1 18:08TBLSteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 3:02CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
  6. P2 3:02TBLZenon Konopka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 3:02CARJay Harrison: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 9:04CARStephane Yelle: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 12:23TBLLukas Krajicek: Interference2 min · PPG
  10. P2 15:55TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 1:09CARNiclas Wallin: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 11:03CARJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
  13. P3 14:31TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARTBL
26Shots on goal39
1.9Expected goals3.1
55Shot attempts64
22Faceoffs won38
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
19Hits19
16Blocked shots14
9Giveaways7
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.1 xGCAR 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #414 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.77 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).