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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Montréal Canadiens 2, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

EDM winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL013110112235
EDM162607319

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:40EDMMike ComrieAssists: Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:32EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Ladislav Smid, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:10EDMPatrick O'SullivanGWGAssists: Ryan Stone · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P2 19:10MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 16:38MTLRoman HamrlikAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:57MTLMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 10:13MTLJaroslav Spacek: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 9:19EDMGilbert Brule: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 9:19MTLPaul Mara: Instigator2 min
  5. P2 9:19MTLPaul Mara: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 9:19MTLPaul Mara: Misconduct10 min
  7. P2 14:33EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 10:36EDMAles Hemsky: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLEDM
35Shots on goal19
1.2Expected goals0.9
71Shot attempts47
27Faceoffs won23
2Power plays3
21Penalty minutes9
16Hits25
12Blocked shots21
13Giveaways13
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 0.9 xGMTL 1.2 xG
00.51P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #487 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

EDM winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).