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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Minnesota Wild 2, San Jose Sharks 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.

SJS winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN112114014240
SJS0731517429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:59MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Shane Hnidy · Slap, 0.33 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:03MINOwen NolanPPAssists: Eric Belanger, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:15SJSJed OrtmeyerAssists: Jason Demers, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:56SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Jody Shelley, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:44SJSDany HeatleyPPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 0:09SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Rob Blake, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:03SJSJamie McGinn: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P2 3:03SJSDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 3:03SJSJason Demers: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 4:16MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:19SJSDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 7:46SJSJamie McGinn: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:42SJSJody Shelley: Interference2 min
  8. P2 14:35MINKim Johnsson: Holding the stick2 min
  9. P2 17:24MINOwen Nolan: Interference2 min · PPG
  10. P3 7:08MINKim Johnsson: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 10:24SJSRob Blake: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 14:40SJSBenn Ferriero: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 16:18MINNiklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Sheppard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINSJS
40Shots on goal29
4.0Expected goals2.6
71Shot attempts51
26Faceoffs won36
8Power plays5
10Penalty minutes16
11Hits22
14Blocked shots17
5Giveaways10
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.6 xGMIN 4.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #417 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.

SJS winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).