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Ice Lab

Sun, Oct 11, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

Anaheim Ducks 0, New York Rangers 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

0

Final

Home

New York Rangers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.

NYR winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA0101106018
NYR013011314338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 2:14NYRAles KotalikPPGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P3 14:22NYRArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Sean Avery · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P3 18:01NYRDan GirardiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 10:37NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:13ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 15:44ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 9:24NYRAles Kotalik: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 1:34ANARyan Whitney: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P3 11:57ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  7. P3 17:36NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Drury
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANANYR
18Shots on goal38
1.4Expected goals4.1
41Shot attempts67
23Faceoffs won31
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
36Hits40
11Blocked shots14
2Giveaways4
5Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.1 xGANA 1.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1130 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.71 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.

NYR winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).