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Ice Lab

Sun, Oct 11, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Dallas Stars 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.

VAN winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL11009213030335
VAN1911015012425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:09DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:45VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:46VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:58DALBrad RichardsAssists: Stephane Robidas, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:53VANWillie MitchellAssists: Steve Bernier, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:27DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. VAN Kyle Wellwood scored
  2. 2. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  3. 3. VAN Ryan Kesler scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 0:32VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 5:02VANSami Salo: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:46VANGuillaume Desbiens: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 12:56DALNicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:20DALTom Wandell: Interference2 min
  6. P2 16:15DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:18VANRyan Kesler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 7:45VANShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 8:37DALMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Burrows won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALVAN
35Shots on goal25
2.4Expected goals2.5
52Shot attempts46
33Faceoffs won19
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
18Hits25
12Blocked shots12
4Giveaways9
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.5 xGDAL 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #103 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.47 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.

VAN winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).