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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 12, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Colorado Avalanche 4, Boston Bruins 3

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL2102903422
BOS01228112332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:15COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:52COLScott HannanAssists: David Jones, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P2 7:45BOSMark RecchiAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Chuck Kobasew · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:14BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Michael Ryder, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
  5. P2 13:32COLMarek SvatosPPAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Brett Clark · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
  6. P2 16:50COLDavid JonesSHGWGAssists: TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
  7. P3 6:24BOSMichael RyderAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:40BOSMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:34COLDarcy Tucker: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 14:09COLCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 18:58COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 11:34BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P2 14:32BOSDerek Morris: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 14:32BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 14:32COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 15:52COLMarek Svatos: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 14:56COLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
  11. P3 0:00BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLBOS
22Shots on goal32
1.6Expected goals2.1
36Shot attempts68
25Faceoffs won33
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
29Hits21
21Blocked shots9
0Giveaways2
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.1 xGCOL 1.6 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #251 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.80 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).