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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 12, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Rangers 7

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.

NYR winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR1811308229
NYR21517411733

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:34NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ales Kotalik · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:08NYRWade ReddenAssists: Vinny Prospal, Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:15TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: John Mitchell, Ian White · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P2 0:26NYRDan GirardiGWGAssists: Chris Drury · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 17:21TORJason BlakePPAssists: Ian White, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 1:56NYRSean AveryAssists: Artem Anisimov, Chris Drury · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
  7. P3 3:13NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Vinny Prospal, Wade Redden · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–5
  8. P3 13:41NYRDan GirardiAssists: Artem Anisimov, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
  9. P3 18:03NYRSean AveryPPAssists: Wade Redden, Enver Lisin · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–7
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:13TORLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 2:05TORMike Komisarek: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 10:18TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 10:18NYRDonald Brashear: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 15:31NYRVinny Prospal: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P1 17:03TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 17:03NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 1:25TORIan White: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 13:08TORNiklas Hagman: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 15:07NYRChris Higgins: Interference2 min
  11. P2 17:06NYRMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min · PPG
  12. P2 19:18NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Kneeing2 min
  13. P2 19:35TORJason Blake: Cross checking2 min
  14. P3 16:58TORJason Blake: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNYR
29Shots on goal33
3.1Expected goals5.4
49Shot attempts58
34Faceoffs won22
4Power plays6
19Penalty minutes15
43Hits27
9Blocked shots14
0Giveaways2
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 5.4 xGTOR 3.1 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #574 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.

NYR winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).