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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 12, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.

WSH winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NJD0717112032329
WSH26012011041233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:06WSHMike GreenAssists: Mike Knuble, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:16WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:18NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Colin White · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:34NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
  2. 2. NJD Zach Parise scored
  3. 3. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
  4. 4. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:55WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 15:02NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:02WSHChris Clark: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 3:24NJDIlkka Pikkarainen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 8:50WSHBrian Pothier: Holding2 min
  6. P2 12:40NJDJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
  7. P3 4:05NJDBryce Salvador: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:12NJDMartin Brodeur: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 7:35NJDNiclas Bergfors: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P3 8:18WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
  11. P3 14:26WSHBoyd Gordon: Slashing2 min
  12. OT 1:56WSHBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Morrison
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDWSH
29Shots on goal33
3.5Expected goals2.8
50Shot attempts57
20Faceoffs won30
5Power plays5
15Penalty minutes15
23Hits29
18Blocked shots8
10Giveaways16
7Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.8 xGNJD 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #319 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.73 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.

WSH winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).