Mon, Oct 12, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 110 | 013 | 233 |
| TBL | 111 | 011 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:10FLARadek DvorakSHAssists: Kamil Kreps · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:32TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:33FLANathan HortonPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 7:17TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 13:29TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Antero Niittymaki · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:32TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:44TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:00FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:46FLAGregory Campbell: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:49TBLMatt Walker: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:22FLABryan Allen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02TBLSteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:57FLAKamil Kreps: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:01TBLAndrej Meszaros: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 19:32FLADavid Booth: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).