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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 12, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Edmonton Oilers 6, Nashville Predators 1

Away

Edmonton Oilers

6

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.

NSH winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM492704620
NSH012114015141

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:11EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ales Hemsky, Jean-Francois Jacques · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:02EDMGilbert BruleGWGAssists: Dustin Penner, Ladislav Smid · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P1 13:58EDMZack StortiniPPAssists: Mike Comrie, Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
  4. P1 19:31EDMZack StortiniAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jason Strudwick · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–0
  5. P2 2:07EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–0
  6. P2 17:57EDMDenis GrebeshkovAssists: Dustin Penner, Gilbert Brule · Backhand, 0.05 xG6–0
  7. P2 19:11NSHJason ArnottAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Dan Hamhuis · Tip-in, 0.15 xG6–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 1:38NSHTriston Grant: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:38EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:03NSHMarcel Goc: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P1 14:22EDMAles Hemsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P1 17:05EDMLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 4:37NSHFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 4:37EDMGilbert Brule: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 8:22EDMEthan Moreau: Holding2 min
  9. P2 12:16NSHMartin Erat: Interference2 min
  10. P2 15:28EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
  11. P3 8:35EDMRyan Stone: Boarding2 min
  12. P3 18:16EDMShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMNSH
20Shots on goal41
2.1Expected goals3.2
36Shot attempts60
25Faceoffs won26
2Power plays6
19Penalty minutes11
8Hits17
8Blocked shots12
6Giveaways14
13Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.2 xGEDM 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1049 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.61 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.

NSH winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).