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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 12, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Calgary Flames 5, Chicago Blackhawks 6 (OT)

Away

Calgary Flames

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 81% of the time.

CHI winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CGY510060400520
CHI11631111111639

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:14CGYDustin BoydAssists: Brandon Prust, Brian McGrattan · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:48CGYEric NystromAssists: Robyn Regehr, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P1 7:07CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen, Fredrik Sjostrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P1 10:44CGYRene BourqueAssists: Dustin Boyd · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
  5. P1 11:43CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–0
  6. P1 17:42CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–1
  7. P2 7:37CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dave Bolland, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
  8. P2 13:44CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
  9. P2 14:25CHIDave BollandAssists: Patrick Kane, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–4
  10. P3 4:32CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Duncan Keith, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.04 xG5–5
  11. OT 0:26CHIBrent SeabrookGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 7:43CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 1:52CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 11:17CHITroy Brouwer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 14:31CHITroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 14:31CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 15:03CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 7:16CGYNigel Dawes: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCHI
20Shots on goal39
1.7Expected goals3.6
28Shot attempts72
23Faceoffs won40
1Power plays4
13Penalty minutes7
19Hits21
16Blocked shots1
2Giveaways6
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.6 xGCGY 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHICGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #46 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.88 · 9 goals in reach · 5-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 81% of the time.

CHI winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).