Tue, Oct 13, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 04 | 110 | 225 |
| BUF | 18 | 418 | 111 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:36BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Paul Gaustad, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.46 xG0–1
- P1 15:30DETValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Jason Williams · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 6:03BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 8:04BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 10:58BUFClarke MacArthurAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 12:46BUFThomas VanekAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 4:28BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Matt Ellis · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–6
- P3 9:25DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Brian Rafalski, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:27DETBrad Stuart: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:47BUFMike Grier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:30DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54DETTomas Holmstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 12:05BUFTim Kennedy: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:19DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:30BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:30DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).