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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 13, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Calgary Flames 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 80% of the time.

CBJ winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY190608123
CBJ01121309233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:19CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Rene Bourque, Olli Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 15:32CBJAnton StralmanPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:36CBJKristian HuseliusGWGAssists: Rick Nash, R.J. Umberger · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:06CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:06CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:01CGYDaymond Langkow: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 5:47CBJRick Nash: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 5:00CBJJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 5:00CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 14:03CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:23CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 0:27CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
  10. P3 18:42CBJRostislav Klesla: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 18:42CGYOlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Iginla won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYCBJ
23Shots on goal33
1.2Expected goals2.8
40Shot attempts59
33Faceoffs won28
1Power plays4
17Penalty minutes11
31Hits40
14Blocked shots13
3Giveaways4
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.8 xGCGY 1.2 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #960 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 80% of the time.

CBJ winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).