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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 13, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Colorado Avalanche 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL2721308428
TOR01211306131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:43COLBrett ClarkPPAssists: Darcy Tucker, Wojtek Wolski · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:09COLDavid JonesGWGAssists: Scott Hannan, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 3:33TORFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:58COLDarcy TuckerPPAssists: Marek Svatos, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.44 xG3–1
  5. P2 9:36COLJohn-Michael LilesAssists: David Jones, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 6:02TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:02COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:26TORJamal Mayers: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 10:04TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P1 13:56COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
  6. P2 3:10COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 4:23TORMike Komisarek: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  8. P2 7:23TORGarnet Exelby: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 7:23COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 12:41COLCraig Anderson: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 12:41TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 12:41COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 8:32TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 15:35TORGarnet Exelby: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLTOR
28Shots on goal31
3.0Expected goals2.5
58Shot attempts65
30Faceoffs won23
5Power plays3
18Penalty minutes22
26Hits21
20Blocked shots13
15Giveaways7
6Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.5 xGCOL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #874 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.

TOR winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).