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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 14, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Edmonton Oilers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 84% of the time.

CHI winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM160429319
CHI21611418438

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:51CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:30EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ethan Moreau, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:15CHIJack SkilleAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:12CHIKris VersteegAssists: Brian Campbell, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
  5. P3 10:43EDMDustin PennerAssists: Gilbert Brule, Tom Gilbert · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:18CHICam BarkerPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:12EDMDenis GrebeshkovPPAssists: Dustin Penner, Shawn Horcoff · Slap, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 11:27EDMRyan Stone: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 17:01EDMJason Strudwick: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  3. P3 5:24CHIDave Bolland: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 7:22CHIJohn Madden: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 15:49EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 18:03EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 18:03CHIBrian Campbell: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 18:23CHIDave Bolland: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCHI
19Shots on goal38
1.6Expected goals3.6
36Shot attempts59
26Faceoffs won25
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes8
20Hits19
17Blocked shots14
5Giveaways9
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.6 xGEDM 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #571 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 84% of the time.

CHI winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).